Missiles, mines and a nuclear decree: 19 November 2024
A retrospective on a day when decisions in Washington, London, Paris and Moscow followed a major Russian strike on Ukraine's energy system.
What did 19 November 2024 show about the direction of the war? Within two days, a large Russian air attack, a loosening of American restrictions and a Russian nuclear-policy decree had pushed several governments into fresh decisions.
The strike that set the tone
On 17 November 2024, Russia launched its largest aerial attack on Ukraine in months. According to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, around 120 missiles and 90 drones were fired, damaging energy infrastructure across the country and killing at least seven people. As reported at the time, the strikes targeted the energy grid ahead of winter, and cities from Lviv to Odesa and Kyiv were affected. Attacks on district heating and electricity were later to cause energy crises in Ukraine.
Washington moves
The same day, 17 November, US President Joe Biden lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of American weapons for deep attacks inside Russia. Ukrainian forces planned to use them in long-distance attacks in the coming days. By 19 November, Biden had also approved sending non-persistent anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, with Kyiv committing not to use them in areas with civilians.
London and Paris follow
On 19 November, the United Kingdom and France were each preparing new military packages containing long-range missiles for Ukraine. The preparations came after Biden's decision to allow deep strikes into Russian territory with American weapons. Taken together, the announcements showed Ukraine's main supporters adjusting their aid in the same days, with long-range capability at the centre.
Moscow's nuclear decree
Also on 19 November, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to use nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power. The wording described exactly the situation of Ukraine, which was backed by nuclear-armed states. Russian nuclear rhetoric had already been a regular feature of the war: senior Russian politicians had made statements widely seen as nuclear blackmail, and commentators had long discussed the risk of escalation. Some analysts argued the risk remained low, since nuclear use would be reserved for the most extreme contingencies.
What the day meant
The sequence of 17 to 19 November is best read as a cluster of linked moves. Russia struck the energy system hard as winter approached; Washington widened what Ukraine could hit; London and Paris readied missiles; and Moscow reworked the declared conditions for nuclear use. For Ukraine's government, the practical questions were how to protect power supply and how to use the new permissions in the coming days. For its partners, the day set the terms of a debate over how far to extend support while managing the risk of escalation.
