Three signals from 31 July and 1 August 2025

What did the turn from July to August 2025 tell Ukraine about its position? On 1 August 2025, as reported at the time, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered two United States Navy nuclear submarines to be deployed near Russia for potential military action against Russian forces. The order came in response to statements by Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, about Trump's previously stated deadline for ending the war in Ukraine.

The day before, 31 July, Russian forces had launched drones and cruise missiles on Kyiv. At least 31 people were killed and more than 150 were injured. At least one tower block collapsed completely. The scale of civilian loss set the tone for the diplomatic exchanges that followed.

The same day, President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law restoring the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). The signing came amid warnings from the European Union and the G7 that financial support could be suspended if the agencies were suppressed.

Seen together, the three developments pointed in different directions: military escalation in rhetoric between Washington and Moscow, continuing strikes on Ukrainian cities, and a domestic reform question that Ukraine's partners were watching closely. This review's opinion is that the anti-corruption law mattered as much as the headlines about submarines, because it showed that external support was tied to institutional integrity even as the war went on.