What did 21 November 2024 reveal about escalation?

How close did the war come to widening on 21 November 2024? That day brought a cluster of announcements suggesting that each side believed the stakes had risen.

The immediate trigger lay in the preceding days. On 19 November, Ukraine launched ATACMS ballistic missiles at targets in Bryansk Oblast, according to the Russian Defence Ministry, the first time it had used the American-supplied missiles against targets inside Russia. The same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to use nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power. On 20 November, Ukraine fired British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory for the first time, after approval by the Starmer cabinet.

Russia's answer

On 21 November, Russia struck Dnipro with a projectile that Mr Putin said was a new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. This confirmed earlier reports from the United States and other western officials that an intermediate-range missile had been used, after initial reports wrongly identified it as an RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.

Russia's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrey Kelin, said the UK was now directly involved in the war, citing the Storm Shadow strikes.

Neighbours take precautions

The unease extended beyond the front. Hungary announced a missile defence system on its border with Ukraine, saying the threat of escalation with Russia was greater than ever. A day earlier, the US, Italian, Greek and Spanish governments had temporarily closed their embassies in Kyiv after threats of a significant air attack, and the embassies of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan urged citizens to leave areas near combat zones or leave Ukraine altogether.

The date stands as a snapshot of rapid moves and counter-moves, with weapons, decrees and diplomatic warnings all arriving within about three days.