What did 21 November 2024 reveal about the war's escalation?
A retrospective on the day Russia named a new missile used on Dnipro, as London, Moscow and Budapest reacted to a rapid sequence of long-range strikes.
What did the escalation of 21 November 2024 look like from Kyiv's side of the front line? It looked like a rapid chain of moves, each answered by a sharper one, with Ukraine at the centre of every link.
On 19 November, Ukraine launched ATACMS ballistic missiles at targets in Bryansk Oblast, according to the Russian Defence Ministry. It was the first time Ukraine had used the American-supplied missiles to strike inside Russia. The same day, the United Kingdom and France prepared new military packages containing long-range missiles, following President Joe Biden's decision to allow deep strikes into Russian territory with American weapons. Biden also approved sending non-persistent anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, with Kyiv committing not to use them in areas with civilians.
Moscow's answer on 19 November was a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin. It allows Russia to use nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power.
On 20 November, Ukraine fired British-produced Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory for the first time, after approval by the Starmer cabinet. The same day, the United States, Italy, Greece and Spain temporarily closed their embassies in Kyiv after threats of a significant air attack from Russia. The embassies of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan urged their citizens to leave areas near combat zones, or Ukraine altogether, amid a growing risk of Russian retaliation. In Belarus, around 1,671 anti-war protesters were arrested for showing solidarity with Ukraine, as part of a crackdown under President Alexander Lukashenko.
The reaction on 21 November
The day itself brought the most pointed responses. Russia struck Dnipro with a projectile that Putin said was a new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. That confirmed earlier reports from the United States and other western officials, who had said Russia used an intermediate-range missile after initial reports misidentified it as an RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.
Russia's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrey Kelin, said Britain was now directly involved in the war following the previous day's Storm Shadow strikes. Hungary announced the deployment of a missile defence system on its border with Ukraine, saying the threat of escalation with Russia was greater than ever.
A day of signals
Taken together, the reports from 19 to 21 November show a compressed exchange: new permissions for Ukraine to use western weapons, a revised Russian nuclear decree, diplomatic closures in Kyiv, and a strike on Dnipro with a newly named missile. Neighbouring states and foreign embassies adjusted their posture in response, and the public statements from London and Moscow made clear how each side read the other's steps.
