What did Belarus and NATO signal before 4 July 2022?
Two developments in the days before 4 July 2022 pointed to a tense security picture on Ukraine's northern and western borders.
What was shaping Ukraine's security picture on 4 July 2022? Two developments from the preceding days gave part of the answer, one concerning Belarus and one concerning NATO's eastern flank.
On 2 July 2022, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that his country had intercepted Ukrainian missiles aimed at Belarus three days earlier. He added that Belarus did not want war with Ukraine. The claim came amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it placed Belarus at the centre of the narrative about the war's northern edge.
A few days earlier, on 29 June 2022, at the NATO summit in Madrid, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that a new permanent U.S. military base would be established in Poland. It was to house the 5th Army's Headquarters, which had had a forward command post in Poznań since the previous year. Poland's government had long requested such a base.
Two signals
Taken together, the two announcements showed contrasting postures. Minsk spoke of avoiding conflict while asserting that missiles had been aimed at its territory. Washington, with allies gathered in Madrid, committed to a lasting American presence in Poland, answering a request Warsaw had made for a long time.
