What did the escalation of 20–21 November 2024 signal?
A look back at the days before 26 November 2024, when missile launches, embassy closures and new warnings marked a sharp turn in the war.
What did it mean when the war in Ukraine entered a more dangerous phase in the days before 26 November 2024? The reports from 20 to 22 November point to a rapid sequence of escalation, and this retrospective sets them out.
Storm Shadow strikes
On 20 November, Ukraine launched British-produced Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory for the first time, following approval by the Starmer cabinet. The next day, Russia's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrey Kelin, said the UK was now "directly involved" in the war because of the strikes.
Warnings in Kyiv
Also on 20 November, the U.S., Italian, Greek and Spanish governments temporarily closed their embassies in Kyiv after threats of a "significant air attack" from Russia. The embassies of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan urged their citizens to leave areas near Ukrainian combat zones, or Ukraine altogether, amid a growing risk of Russian retaliatory attacks.
The Oreshnik strike on Dnipro
On 21 November, Russia struck Dnipro with a projectile that President Vladimir Putin said was a new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. This confirmed earlier reports from the United States and other western officials, who had said Russia used an intermediate-range ballistic missile after initial reports misidentified it as an RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.
Reactions beyond Ukraine
On the same day, Hungary announced the deployment of a missile defence system on its border with Ukraine, saying the threat of escalation with Russia was now "greater than ever". Separately, on 20 November, around 1,671 anti-war protesters in Belarus were arrested for showing solidarity with Ukraine, as part of a crackdown on the opposition under President Alexander Lukashenko.
The human cost continued
The violence reached civilians as well. On 22 November, a Russian drone attack on civilian infrastructure in Sumy killed two people and injured 12 others.
Taken together, the reports show how quickly events moved in those days: a new Western-supplied weapon used against targets in Russia, a new missile type used on Dnipro, diplomatic missions shuttered in Kyiv, and neighbouring states adjusting their defences and advice to citizens. By 26 November 2024, that pattern defined the mood around the war.
