What the Novi Sanzhary protests revealed about Ukraine's public mood
A look back at 24 February 2020, and at the preceding days of unrest at home, fighting in Donbas and a shift in Moscow's Ukraine policy.
What was the state of Ukraine's public life on 24 February 2020, and what pressures had built up in the days before it? The picture that emerged from the preceding week combined domestic tension, continuing war and a notable personnel change in Russia.
Unrest at home
On 20 February 2020, protests in Novi Sanzhary against the arrival of people evacuated from China damaged buses and left 10 people injured. The episode showed how quickly a public-health arrangement could turn into a confrontation on the street, and it placed a demand on local and national institutions to manage both the evacuees and the reaction of residents.
War in the east
The front in Donbas stayed active. On the morning of 18 February 2020, occupation forces carried out a large-scale attack on Joint Forces positions near Novotoshkivske, Orikhove, Krymske and Khutir Vilnyi. Ukrainian forces took losses. The attack was a reminder that security demands continued alongside the domestic disturbances.
A change in Moscow
Also on 18 February 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order dismissing senior adviser Vladislav Surkov. Surkov had been in charge of the Kremlin's policy on the Ukrainian crisis and of its relations with the separatist "people's republics" in Donbas. His removal ended his responsibility for that portfolio.
Wider pressures
Beyond Ukraine, other developments involving Russia also stood out in the same days. On 18 February 2020, the US State Department added the Russian oil company Rosneft Trading S.A. to its financial blacklist for helping facilitate the sale of Venezuelan oil. On 20 February 2020, in north-western Syria, a Russian air strike killed two Turkish soldiers and injured five, while Turkey said its retaliatory strike killed 50 Syrian troops. Turkey also formally asked its NATO ally the United States to deploy Patriot air-defence systems on the Syria–Turkey border.
Implications
For Kyiv, the lesson of those days was twofold. Domestic stability depended on how authorities handled sensitive decisions and the public response to them, as Novi Sanzhary showed. Meanwhile, the war in Donbas continued to cost lives, and the removal of the official who had run Moscow's Ukraine policy marked a change on the Russian side.
