What the Wagner rebellion left behind by 26 June 2023
A look back at the Russian turmoil of 24 June 2023, and at the war's other developments as the weekend ended.
What did the Wagner rebellion change by 26 June 2023? The question was open on that Monday, two days after a short but dramatic challenge to Russia's military leadership ended in a negotiated deal.
A rebellion that ended within a day
On 24 June 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin warned that his troops would march on Moscow unless Russian military leadership met him for talks. Russian president Vladimir Putin addressed the nation and said a coup d'état attempt was under way.
The Wagner Group seized and occupied Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, with clashes across both oblasts. Its forces captured the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, and Rostov Governor Vasily Golubev asked residents to remain indoors. In Lipetsk Oblast, authorities told residents to stay inside and closed the M4 highway; Wagner forces later entered Lipetsk.
There was fighting in the air as well. An Antonov An-26 transport plane was reportedly shot down over Voronezh Oblast, while Russian Air Force Ka-50 helicopters struck an oil refinery and depot in Voronezh, causing a large explosion and fire.
The episode ended the same day. The Wagner Group withdrew after Prigozhin, Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal. As later described, the criminal case against Prigozhin over an armed mutiny was to be closed, Wagner fighters were to go to field camps, and Prigozhin himself was to move to Belarus.
The war continued in Ukraine
The turmoil in Russia did not pause the fighting in Ukraine. Overnight into 24 June, debris from a Russian cruise missile shot down over Kyiv damaged a 25-storey building, killing three civilians and injuring eight. The Ukrainian military said its air defences destroyed 41 of 51 cruise missiles launched by Russia, along with two drones.
On 26 June 2023, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Ukrainian forces had recaptured the uninhabited village of Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast, the ninth village retaken in the past month. The tally points to steady, incremental gains on the ground, unconnected in the reporting to events in Rostov or Voronezh.
Support from Australia
International backing continued as well. On 26 June 2023, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a AU$110 million military aid package for Ukraine. Two days earlier, on 24 June, Australia imposed financial sanctions and travel bans on former GRU officer Sergey Dubinsky, Russian Armed Forces colonel Sergey Muchkaev and Donbas separatist leader Leonid Kharchenko over their involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, in which 38 Australians were killed.
What the day showed
Taken together, the developments of those days showed two parallel tracks. In Russia, an armed challenge to the military leadership appeared and was resolved through negotiation within a day, with Belarus's president as intermediary. In Ukraine, the pattern was one of continued Russian missile attack, continued defence by air defences, small territorial recoveries, and allied assistance in the form of aid and sanctions.
How lasting the rebellion's effects would be was not clear on 26 June 2023, and this review draws no conclusions beyond what the events themselves showed: the deal ended the march, and the war went on.
