What the week before 25 November 2024 changed for Ukraine
A look back at the escalation of 19–21 November 2024: new weapons, a revised Russian nuclear decree and a missile strike on Dnipro.
What had changed for Ukraine in the days leading up to 25 November 2024? Reports from 19 to 21 November pointed to a sharp escalation in weapons, warnings and rhetoric.
On 19 November, the United Kingdom and France were reported to be preparing new military packages containing long-range missiles for Ukraine. The preparations followed a decision by US President Joe Biden to allow deep strikes into Russian territory using American weapons. The same day, Biden approved sending non-persistent anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, with Kyiv committing not to use them in areas with civilians.
Also on 19 November, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to use nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks by a non-nuclear state that is supported by a nuclear power.
The Dnipro strike
On 21 November, Russia struck Dnipro with a projectile that Putin said was a new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. That statement confirmed earlier reports from US and other western officials, who had said Russia used an intermediate-range ballistic missile. Initial reports had misidentified it as an RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.
Solidarity in Belarus
On 20 November, around 1,671 anti-war protesters in Belarus were arrested for showing solidarity with Ukraine. The arrests were part of a crackdown on the opposition under President Alexander Lukashenko.
Taken together, the reports from these days show a conflict in which new long-range capabilities, a changed nuclear posture and a new missile type all came to the fore within a few days, shortly before 25 November 2024.
