Kerch Strait clash puts Trump–Putin meeting in doubt
A look back at 27 November 2018, when a maritime clash with Ukraine began to affect planning for a Group of 20 summit meeting.
What did the Kerch Strait incident mean for diplomacy beyond Ukraine? On 27 November 2018, the answer began to emerge in Washington: U.S. President Donald Trump said he might cancel his scheduled meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at that week's G20 summit in Buenos Aires, citing Russia's maritime clash with Ukraine.
What had happened
The clash took place on 25 November 2018. Russian Federal Security Service coast guard vessels fired upon and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels as they tried to pass from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait, on their way to the port of Mariupol. It was the first time Russian forces had openly engaged Ukrainian forces during the Russo-Ukrainian War.
A summit under pressure
Two days later, the incident had moved from a regional confrontation to a question about great-power contacts. A planned bilateral meeting between the American and Russian presidents, previously on the summit's agenda, was now conditional on how Washington judged Moscow's conduct toward Ukraine. Mr Trump's remark signalled that the episode carried a diplomatic cost for Russia.
A separate legal blow
One day earlier, on 26 November 2018, an international tribunal in Paris ruled that Russia must pay the Ukrainian state-owned Oschadbank 1.3bn dollars. The ruling was a distinct matter from the strait incident, but it landed in the same days, adding a financial dimension to Moscow's difficulties with Kyiv.
Together, the developments of 26 and 27 November 2018 showed Ukraine's dispute with Russia being pursued on several fronts: at sea, in international legal forums and in the diplomatic calendar of a major summit.
