Two crises on Russia's periphery, as seen on 10 February 2025

What links a gas shortage in Moldova to a downed passenger jet near the Caspian? On 10 February 2025, both episodes were still unresolved, and both traced back to decisions taken in Moscow's neighbourhood in late 2024.

Moldova's gas problem

Transnistria, Moldova's unrecognised breakaway region, stopped receiving Russian natural gas on 31 December 2024, when Russia's five-year gas transit deal with Ukraine expired. Heating, hot water and gas were cut off there entirely. Energy tariffs rose sharply across Moldova, and some villages elsewhere in the country also lost gas. In Transnistria, three people died of carbon monoxide poisoning, and others were injured; cases of hypothermia were also reported.

On 6 February 2025, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean called on Transnistria to take steps to avoid a new gas crisis. The appeal showed that Chisinau was still concerned about a repeat of the winter's disruption.

The Azerbaijan Airlines crash

On 25 December 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer E190 flying from Baku to Grozny, was severely damaged by a Russian surface-to-air missile on approach. Its hydraulic system failed and it crashed near Aktau in Kazakhstan. Of the 67 people aboard, 38 died and 29 survived with injuries.

On 4 February 2025, an Azerbaijani government source reported that the aircraft had been shot down by Russia's Pantsir missile system.

What the week showed

The two stories were separate, but each involved the consequences of Russian actions or Russian-linked arrangements for neighbouring states. In Moldova the issue was energy supply; in Azerbaijan's case, the loss of an airliner and the question of how it was brought down. As of 10 February 2025, neither matter had been settled.