What did Russia's warnings to Finland and Sweden signal in May 2022?
A look back at the Russian threats, the electricity cut-off and the sporting restrictions reported in the days before 17 May 2022.
What was Moscow signalling to Finland and Sweden as of 17 May 2022? The reports from the preceding days show a pattern of warnings and pressure aimed at the two Nordic countries as the enlargement of NATO came onto the agenda.
On 12 May 2022, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs threatened retaliatory steps against Finland if it joined NATO, including steps of a "military-technical" nature. The following day, 13 May 2022, RAO Nordic, a subsidiary of the Russian energy company Inter RAO, announced it would suspend electricity deliveries to Finland. The company said it had not been paid for earlier deliveries. As reported at the time, the suspension came as Russia was threatening retaliation over Finland's possible NATO membership.
Sweden brought into the warning
On 16 May 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin widened the message to Sweden as well. He said Russia would react to the "expansion of military infrastructure" by NATO in Sweden and Finland. He added that problems were being created for no reason at all, and that Russia would react accordingly.
A separate track: sport
A different kind of restriction was reported on 12 May 2022. Tennis players from Russia and Belarus would be allowed to compete at the upcoming French Open as neutral athletes. Players who spoke in support of Putin would face sanctions.
What it meant on 17 May 2022
Taken together, the reports describe a diplomatic and economic climate in which Russian officials combined general warnings with a concrete measure on energy supply, while sporting bodies continued to set conditions for Russian and Belarusian participation. The warnings from the foreign ministry and from Putin were framed around possible NATO membership and military infrastructure, and the electricity suspension was explained by the company in terms of unpaid deliveries.
