What Moscow's warnings to Finland and Sweden signalled on 17 May 2022

What did Moscow want the Nordic capitals to hear as the question of NATO membership came into focus on 17 May 2022? In the days before that date, Russian officials and companies sent a series of signals aimed at Finland and Sweden.

On 12 May 2022, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs threatened retaliatory steps against Finland if it joined NATO, including measures of a "military-technical" nature. The warning set the tone: membership was presented as something that would carry a price.

The following day, 13 May 2022, RAO Nordic, a subsidiary of the Russian energy company Inter RAO, announced it would suspend electricity deliveries to Finland. The company said it had not been paid for earlier deliveries. The suspension came as Russia was threatening retaliation over Finland's possible accession.

On 16 May 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin widened the message to Sweden as well. He said Russia would react to the "expansion of military infrastructure" by NATO in Sweden and Finland, and argued that problems were being created for no reason at all. He added that Russia would react accordingly.

What the sequence showed

Taken together, the statements combined diplomatic threats, a commercial step in the energy sector and a presidential warning that covered both countries. Only the first of these named a type of response, "military-technical" measures; the others kept to general language about reacting.

The period also saw other restrictions linked to Russia's position in international life. On 12 May 2022, it was announced that tennis players from Russia and Belarus would be allowed to compete at the French Open as neutral athletes, while those speaking in support of Putin would face sanctions.

For Kyiv-watchers and European governments alike, the days leading up to 17 May 2022 showed how Russia intended to frame the Nordic debate: as a matter that would bring a response from Moscow.